Event Image
December 31, 2029
Vol: $6

Will a Fusion Power Plant Deliver Net Electricity to the Grid by 2030?

Outcome

%Chance

Fusion Power Plant Deliver Net Electricity to the Grid by 2030?

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Fusion Power Plant Deliver Net Electricity to the Grid by 2030?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2029, any fusion energy reactor succeeds in generating net positive electrical power to an electrical grid.

In practice, that means a fusion plant must deliver ≥50 MW of net electrical power (after internal loads) to a commercial power grid for at least 1 continuous hour (beyond just breakeven in an experiment) before 2030.

A confirmed grid connection delivering ≥50 MW of fusion-generated power (even after ramp-up) will count. The achievement must be confirmed by at least one of:

  1. a grid operator / ISO / utility statement
  2. the operator/company’s official release, or
  3. a major newswire report citing either (1) or (2)

If no such grid-fed fusion power is achieved on or before December 31, 2029, 23:59:59 UTC, the market resolves No.

News

about 23 hours ago

Texatron fusion engine completes first engineering validation tests

American Fusion Inc. has completed its first lab-testing phase for the Texatron Fusion Engine at Texas Tech University, validating high-voltage systems, plasma controls, diagnostics, and related subsystems with non-radioactive fuel and reporting no measurable radiation, marking an early engineering milestone toward more advanced, integrated testing.

Kaif Shaikh
about 23 hours ago

The Future of Energy: Germany's Race to Build the First Fusion Power Plant (2026)

Germany joins the fusion race with Proxima Fusion, Bavaria, RWE, and IPP backing a two-stage plan to demo an Alpha stellarator in Garching and eventually build the Stellaris fusion plant in Gundremmingen for commercial net-energy by the 2030s, aiming to deliver carbon-free baseload electricity and spur public-private collaboration amid global private-sector efforts.

about 23 hours ago

Pulsed-power prototype completes 3,000 tests at 95% efficiency for future fusion plants (2026)

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Pacific Fusion’s Sirius pulsed-power prototype achieved 3,000 test shots at 95% energy efficiency, using an impedance-matched Marx generator to deliver ultra-short, high-power pulses, with plans to scale up to much larger systems as part of Pacific Fusion’s goal for net facility gain by 2030.

about 23 hours ago

Nuclear Startup's $1B Raise to Power AI Data Centers - Global 1 News

Valar Atomics, a Utah-based nuclear startup, raised $1 billion in equity (led by Sequoia) plus a $200 million credit line to commercialize Ward 250, a Gen IV TRISO reactor that achieved self-sustaining criticality and 100 kW of power, with a collaboration to power Nvidia AI workloads and plans for a waterless 30 MW AI factory, though regulatory licensing, HALEU fuel supply, and scalable manufacturing capacity remain unresolved.

Global 1 News
about 23 hours ago

Artificial Sun: UK's Tokamak Energy Unveils Plans for Extreme Fusion Energy (2026)

Tokamak Energy (UK) unveiled its pilot fusion plant design capable of 800 MW fusion power (net 85 MW) to power ~70,000 homes, featuring a 2.0 aspect ratio, 4.25 m major radius, 4.25 T magnetic field, liquid lithium tritium breeding blanket, and HTS magnets to reach 100 million °C plasma, with aims to demonstrate net power in the mid-2030s as part of international fusion collaborations.

about 23 hours ago

UK's Fusion Breakthrough: 100 Million Degree Plasma & the Race for Clean Energy (2026)

Britain’s STEP fusion program aims to build a 2040s prototype power plant at West Burton, requiring about 30,000 km of high-temperature superconducting REBCO tape sourced from Furukawa in the U.S., with Tokamak Energy upgrading the ST40 by $52 million (a US-DOE-backed effort) as part of a globally collaborative push that highlights manufacturing challenges, international partnerships, and broader applications of HTS magnets beyond fusion.

about 23 hours ago

Japan’s fusion industry seeks state backing amid Middle East energy strain - Brazing News

Japan’s Starlight Engine plans a $5 billion prototype fusion plant, seeking two-thirds funding from Japan amid Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s strong backing, as Japan accelerates fusion amid energy-security pressures from heavy Middle East oil dependence and rising global competition for multibillion-dollar prototypes.

damazah@gmail.com
about 23 hours ago

Fusion Breakthrough: Helion Hits 150 Million °C in Polaris — What It Means for 2028 Power Dreams (2026)

Helion’s Polaris fusion prototype has reached 150 million °C using a deuterium–helium-3 fuel blend in a field-reversed configuration, with plans to directly generate electricity from the reactor’s magnetic field and a 2028 Microsoft electricity contract, while continuing toward higher temps and scaling power plants like the 50 MW Orion.

about 23 hours ago

Boston-area company cranks up compact fusion reactor to 75% completion (2026)

Commonwealth Fusion Systems is building a compact 75% complete SPARC fusion reactor near Boston, using high-temperature superconducting magnets to achieve strong 20-tesla fields in a smaller footprint, with aims to net-energy-gain by 2027 (and eventually power-scale ARC 400 MW), backed by over $2B from Google, Gates, and Eni, while SPARC serves as a proof-of-concept ahead of broader commercial deployment.

2 days ago

China's 'Artificial Sun' Reaches Major Milestone, Targeting 2030 for First Electricity Output (2026)

China is advancing its nuclear-fusion project, the EAST “artificial sun,” with major strides in developing 580-ton superconducting magnets toward a 2030 electricity-output goal, while noting progress and remaining challenges, including coil installation, long-term stability, and continued cost reductions in superconducting materials.

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