Event Image
December 31, 2027
Vol: $3

Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?

Outcome

%Chance

Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?

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Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2027, the People’s Republic of China launches a full-scale military offensive intended to seize control of territory governed by Taiwan (the Republic of China).

In other words, a Chinese attack aiming to invade and occupy Taiwan’s main island or any of its inhabited outlying islands (e.g. Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu) by the end of 2027 will satisfy a “Yes” resolution. Uninhabited islets or purely symbolic incidents (without major combat) would not count. The invasion attempt must be evidenced by official confirmations (from China, Taiwan, the U.N., or a major power) or a broad consensus of credible reporting that an outright military invasion of Taiwan has begun.

Incidents short of an actual invasion do not count. Mere naval blockades, limited missile strikes, or isolated clashes that do not amount to a full-fledged attempt to conquer Taiwanese territory will resolve this market to “No.” In essence, Yes requires a war scenario in which China’s forces explicitly move to take Taiwanese land by force.

If no such invasion is underway by the end of 2027, the market resolves to No.

News

about 18 hours ago

Opinion | How China's Coast Guard Is Reshaping the First Island Chain | Shiah I-Shin | World - The Storm Media

China is expanding a multi-layered gray-zone strategy along the First Island Chain, using coast guard patrols, maritime law enforcement, and coordinated maritime militia to normalize “lawful” jurisdiction, steadily eroding Taiwan’s control from Kinmen to the main island and signaling a broader shift in regional maritime power that is being met with sustained, visible countermeasures and international cooperation.

Shiah I-Shin
about 18 hours ago

Taiwan Safety Chief Says China's 'hybrid Warfare' Exams Entire Area | DNews World

Taiwan’s National Security Council chief warns that China’s mass deployment of coast guard and vessels to enforce maritime claims amounts to hybrid warfare and poses a new, ongoing challenge beyond Taiwan, reflecting Beijing’s broader maritime coercion.

about 18 hours ago

Stick with it until you win: why Beijing keeps sovereignty disputes alive | The Strategist

Beijing keeps sovereignty disputes alive not to win immediate concessions, but as a long-term strategic asset—repeating claims through maps, laws, diplomacy, and actions to preserve legal and political options for future shifts in regional power, while recognizing that this persistence is about preventing closure of the argument rather than securing instant victory.

Pu-Chao Hung
about 18 hours ago

China Extends Military Activity Around Taiwan with Fresh Air-S...

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. local time, five PLA aircraft and eight PLAN vessels (plus two official Chinese ships) were operating around Taiwan, with three aircraft crossing Taiwan’s ADIZ median line and entering its southwestern ADIZ, amid ongoing Chinese military activity around the island and recent joint drills with Russia and other large-scale exercises.

Lakshmi Prabha
about 18 hours ago

Taiwan security chief says China's 'hybrid warfare' tests whole region - Nikkei Asia

Taiwan’s NSC chief Joseph Wu says China’s coast guard and other vessels’ mass deployments to enforce its claims amount to hybrid warfare that tests the entire region, signaling growing maritime pressure on Taiwan and prompting strengthened cooperation with Tokyo and Manila.

about 18 hours ago

‘Chinese Nostradamus’ makes worrying prediction that will 'forever change the global order'

A YouTube analyst known as the “Chinese Nostradamus” predicted that a US–Iran war would end with the United States losing and the global order changing forever, arguing Iran holds strategic advantages and that the conflict threatens the world economy.

about 18 hours ago

China's coast guard aggression poses new regional threat: Joseph Wu - Focus Taiwan

Taiwanese National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu warned that China’s coast guard and other official vessels are increasing aggression across the Indo-Pacific, threatening the First Island Chain from Japan to the Philippines and prompting Taiwan to expand cross-agency countermeasures and regional coordination, in response to recent Chinese “special maritime law enforcement operations” near Taiwan and heightened vessel activity in the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, western Pacific, and South China Sea.

(By Joseph Yeh) Enditem/sfj
about 18 hours ago

Drop in Chinese Military Flights Reflects PLA Turmoil, Not Easing Tensions: Former Taiwan General | The Epoch Times

Taiwanese retired Maj. Gen. Yu Tsung-chi says the drop in PLA flights near Taiwan in H1 2026 signals turmoil within China’s military and leadership rather than easing tensions, with Beijing shifting toward gray-zone tactics, psychological warfare, and political influence operations that may pose greater long-term security risks for Taiwan.

2 days ago

Exclusive | China’s military goal is to stand neck and neck with the US: ex-PLA colonel Zhou Bo | South China Morning Post

China aims to modernize its armed forces by 2035, pursuing two milestones: the PLA’s 2027 centenary and China’s 2049 national centenary, with the overarching goal of a world-class military by 2049, implying the PLA may not be fully modernized by 2027 and positioning China as potentially the second-strongest or among the top militaries after the United States depending on how “world-class” is defined.

2 days ago

《TAIPEI TIMES》 New missile could begin production next year - 焦點 - 自由時報電子報

Taiwan’s NCIST has completed the design of the Ching Tien hypersonic cruise missile, a two-stage solid-fuel/ramjet system potentially capable of speeds 3–5x Mach with a range around 1,250 km, planned for mass production as early as next year under the 2027 defense budget to boost deterrence and enable strikes on inland Chinese targets.

自由時報電子報

Comments (2)

@KarlMarx

Reasoning
Bought
1 Noshares @ 0.76¢

6mo ago

Even if China ultimately escalates to a full-blown invasion, it won't be until a couple of years at least. End of 2027 seems like a rather short timeline.

@meruemgungi

Reasoning
Bought
4 Yesshares @ 0.26¢

6mo ago

It seems like AGI systems are on the horizon. Once the Chinese government sees evidence for all cognitive labor being automated, which should happen by end of 2026, compute will become the main bottleneck to scale their dominance.