Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?
Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?
Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?
By placing order, you agree to Terms & Conditions
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2027, the People’s Republic of China launches a full-scale military offensive intended to seize control of territory governed by Taiwan (the Republic of China).
In other words, a Chinese attack aiming to invade and occupy Taiwan’s main island or any of its inhabited outlying islands (e.g. Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu) by the end of 2027 will satisfy a “Yes” resolution. Uninhabited islets or purely symbolic incidents (without major combat) would not count. The invasion attempt must be evidenced by official confirmations (from China, Taiwan, the U.N., or a major power) or a broad consensus of credible reporting that an outright military invasion of Taiwan has begun.
Incidents short of an actual invasion do not count. Mere naval blockades, limited missile strikes, or isolated clashes that do not amount to a full-fledged attempt to conquer Taiwanese territory will resolve this market to “No.” In essence, Yes requires a war scenario in which China’s forces explicitly move to take Taiwanese land by force.
If no such invasion is underway by the end of 2027, the market resolves to No.
News
The South China Sea: The Geo-political Epicenter of the Indo-Pacific?
The book "The South China Sea: The Geo-political Epicenter of the Indo-Pacific?" analyzes the geopolitical competition in the South China Sea, highlighting its significance as a critical waterway and offering insights and recommendations for fostering cooperation and sustainable governance in the region.
Nguyen Hung Son0,China's Strategic Balancing Act in the Ukraine Conflict
China is navigating a complex relationship with Russia amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict, positioning itself as a potential mediator while maintaining support for Moscow, as it seeks to enhance its global influence and project an image of a peace-promoting nation.
TME NewsChina's Military Drills Around Taiwan Signal Independence Warning
China has launched extensive military drills around Taiwan as a warning against any moves toward independence, escalating tensions in the region and prompting Taiwan to bolster its military readiness amidst mixed international reactions.
TME NewsSupply Chain Localization in the Semiconductor Industry
The book "Supply Chain Localization in the Semiconductor Industry" by Tin-Chih Toly Chen examines strategies for localizing semiconductor supply chains to enhance the competitiveness and sustainability of manufacturers in response to market demands.
Tin-Chih Toly Chen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5608-51760Global Market Pulse (USD)
The webpage provides access to MFS's Global Market Pulse, offering insights and resources for financial professionals, including login options for various client types and links to investment products, strategies, and market insights.
Insights | State Street
The "Insights" section of State Street provides a comprehensive collection of research and analysis on various investment topics, including sectors, smart beta strategies, and fixed income, aimed at helping institutional investors navigate diverse investment opportunities.
As of now, Taiwan has reported a total of 4,904,622 confirmed COVID-19 cases, with data sourced from the CSSEGIS and Data repository.
Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle Market Analysis & Forecast: 2025-2032
The Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) market is projected to grow significantly from 2025 to 2032, driven by the increasing need for military supremacy, reduced risk to human lives in combat missions, and the ongoing territorial disputes among nations, with applications in surveillance, artillery direction, and electronic intelligence gathering.
Coherent Market Insights Pvt LtdKinaforum
The article discusses the challenges India faces in becoming a major electronics manufacturing hub despite U.S. tariffs on China, highlighting Apple's decision to increase production in India and President Trump's disapproval of this move.
Torbjørn FærøvikKinaforum
India's warm reception of Vladimir Putin amid his threats to Europe signals a shift in its strategic autonomy, raising concerns in Washington about India's role as a key ally in the Indo-Pacific, especially given its enduring ties with Russia.
Torbjørn FærøvikComments (2)
Even if China ultimately escalates to a full-blown invasion, it won't be until a couple of years at least. End of 2027 seems like a rather short timeline.