Event Image
December 31, 2027
Vol: $3

Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?

Outcome

%Chance

Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?

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Will China Invade Taiwan by the End of 2027?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2027, the People’s Republic of China launches a full-scale military offensive intended to seize control of territory governed by Taiwan (the Republic of China).

In other words, a Chinese attack aiming to invade and occupy Taiwan’s main island or any of its inhabited outlying islands (e.g. Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu) by the end of 2027 will satisfy a “Yes” resolution. Uninhabited islets or purely symbolic incidents (without major combat) would not count. The invasion attempt must be evidenced by official confirmations (from China, Taiwan, the U.N., or a major power) or a broad consensus of credible reporting that an outright military invasion of Taiwan has begun.

Incidents short of an actual invasion do not count. Mere naval blockades, limited missile strikes, or isolated clashes that do not amount to a full-fledged attempt to conquer Taiwanese territory will resolve this market to “No.” In essence, Yes requires a war scenario in which China’s forces explicitly move to take Taiwanese land by force.

If no such invasion is underway by the end of 2027, the market resolves to No.

News

about 23 hours ago

How Taiwan is preparing for a PLA sea blockade in its biggest war games | South China Morning Post

Taiwan’s 42nd Han Kuang war games will test counter-blockade capabilities against a PLA maritime blockade, incorporating US planning practices, and experiment with wartime relocation of weapons production to safer sites while preparing for internet outages and high readiness to protect supply lines and conduct counter-blockade operations.

about 23 hours ago

Opinion | China Ran 19 Drills Near Taiwan. Taipei Disclosed Three. | Lu Wen-hao | Taiwan - The Storm Media

The article reports that China held multiple large-scale live-fire drills around Taiwan in mid-July 2026 across three main maritime zones, with additional unreported exercises expanding from Bohai to the South China Sea, and analyzes that these drills function as an annual, integrated verification mechanism for cross-strait operations, while Taiwan observed increased PLA air and naval activity and the PLA signaling potential median-line crossings in response.

Lu Wen-hao
about 23 hours ago

Icds Head China Plays A Major Role In Ending The War In Iran | Estonian News Hub

China, leveraging its influence over Iran, is playing a major role in efforts to end the Iran conflict as Trump visits Beijing, with ICDS Director Kristi Raik noting China’s long-term strategic position, its ability to pressure Iran, and the potential for a China–US balance (the “G2”) to shape outcomes, while U.S. credibility and alliances waver and Trump faces political pressure to move toward a resolution before midterm elections.

Johannes Tralla | ERR
about 23 hours ago

The ‘peaceful reunification’ trap - Taipei Times

A Taipei Times editorial argues that inside-KMT calls for “peaceful reunification” with China signal a normalization of unification discussions, while Taiwan faces rising central-government criticism turned into moral obligation, and Beijing’s information-style tactics risk eroding public trust and democratic norms—urging robust civil-society and media-led reform of civic culture to uphold truth, accountability, and deliberation.

about 23 hours ago

Taiwan's first Qingtian hypersonic missile could enter production in FY2027 defense budget

Taiwan’s National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology has completed full-system design of the Qingtian long-range hypersonic cruise missile (formerly Yun Feng II) and plans to place it into production in the FY2027 defense budget, enabling road-mobile, dispersed launch with an estimated range of 1,200–2,000 km and speeds Mach 3–5, marking Taiwan’s first indigenous conventional long-range strike capability reaching targets across central and northern China.

Jérôme Brahy
about 23 hours ago

Chinas Fujian Aircraft Carrier Transits Taiwan Strait What Does It – Mosquera

China’s newest and domestically designed aircraft carrier, the Fujian (CV-003), equipped with electromagnetic catapults, transited the Taiwan Strait for the first time, signaling a significant advancement in Beijing’s naval capabilities as it continues sea trials ahead of commissioning.

about 23 hours ago

The United States is preparing Taiwan for a possible clash with China - Pravda USA

The article claims the United States is preparing Taiwan for a possible China clash, citing Taiwan's Defense Minister Wellington Koo on deep U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation that provides combat experience, the delivery of the final batch of 108 Abrams tanks to Taiwan, and Taiwan’s public preparations such as stockpiling weapons and building shelters in anticipation of a potential conflict within two years, with no expectation of direct American troop intervention.

about 23 hours ago

Taiwan's Newest Missile Can Reach Beijing

Taiwan plans to mass-produce the Ching Tien hypersonic missile—an NCIST-developed, two-stage system derived from Yun Feng with solid-fuel first stage and ramjet acceleration—capable of 3–5× speed of sound, about 1,250 km range, to be produced by 2027 (with production from 2027–2029) and deployed alongside enhanced air defense and long-range radar, as part of broader measures to deter China ahead of and during Han Kuang 2026 drills.

Iwan Santosa - iwan.santosa@kompas.com
about 23 hours ago

Guns of Taiwan Island: the head of the country's Defense Ministry, Wellington Gu, confirmed the holding of secret military exercises with the United States after a revealing article in The Wall Street Journal - Pravda EN

The article claims Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Gu confirmed secretly conducted military exercises with the United States, framing Taiwan as a key US foothold and warning that such joint drills signal an escalating path toward war, with broader stakes for regional power struggle and implications for US policy in Asia.

2 days ago

Exclusive | ‘Surprising’ how quickly China’s military is closing gap with US: analyst Lyle Goldstein | South China Morning Post

China’s military has significantly accelerated modernisation over the past decade, with expert Lyle Goldstein praising its rapid progress and stating that Beijing has achieved world-class status in several areas, while noting some programmes (like aircraft carriers) are not yet mature and that by 2037 China will be much stronger, reflecting rising regional anxiety about the U.S. role in the region.

Comments (2)

@KarlMarx

Reasoning
Bought
1 Noshares @ 0.76¢

6mo ago

Even if China ultimately escalates to a full-blown invasion, it won't be until a couple of years at least. End of 2027 seems like a rather short timeline.

@meruemgungi

Reasoning
Bought
4 Yesshares @ 0.26¢

6mo ago

It seems like AGI systems are on the horizon. Once the Chinese government sees evidence for all cognitive labor being automated, which should happen by end of 2026, compute will become the main bottleneck to scale their dominance.