
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
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Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
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Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to Yes if North Korea detonates a nuclear explosive device (nuclear weapon test) on or before December 31, 2026.
In practice, a “Yes” means that a nuclear test by the DPRK is detected and officially confirmed during the period 2024–2026. Such confirmation would typically come via seismic detection and analysis by international monitors (e.g. CTBTO/IMS), accompanied by acknowledgement from governments or the North Korean state media.
Any nuclear test – whether underground, atmospheric, or underwater – counts, as long as it’s clear that North Korea successfully set off a nuclear yield.
Regular ballistic missile launches without a nuclear warhead do not count, and neither would non-nuclear “subcritical” experiments. The test must involve an actual nuclear chain reaction (fission/fusion explosion). If North Korea does not conduct a confirmed nuclear test by the end of 2026, the market resolves No.
News
ادعای سئول: احتمال آزمایش هستهای قریبالوقوع کرهشمالی وجود دارد
کره شمالی بر اساس تصمیم رهبر آن کشور در حالت آمادهباش برای انجام آزمایش هستهای جدید قرار دارد، و مقامات نظامی کرهجنوبی احتمال وقوع این آزمایش در آینده نزدیک را اعلام کردهاند.
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Song Sang-hoComments (1)
@JayR
2mo ago
Not happening

