
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
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Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to Yes if North Korea detonates a nuclear explosive device (nuclear weapon test) on or before December 31, 2026.
In practice, a “Yes” means that a nuclear test by the DPRK is detected and officially confirmed during the period 2024–2026. Such confirmation would typically come via seismic detection and analysis by international monitors (e.g. CTBTO/IMS), accompanied by acknowledgement from governments or the North Korean state media.
Any nuclear test – whether underground, atmospheric, or underwater – counts, as long as it’s clear that North Korea successfully set off a nuclear yield.
Regular ballistic missile launches without a nuclear warhead do not count, and neither would non-nuclear “subcritical” experiments. The test must involve an actual nuclear chain reaction (fission/fusion explosion). If North Korea does not conduct a confirmed nuclear test by the end of 2026, the market resolves No.
News
BBC World Service - Weekend
The BBC World Service's "Weekend" program provides a weekly review of global news, featuring discussions on significant topics such as the United Nations' precarious situation and various international events, along with access to past episodes and highlights.
Will all remaining Trump cabinet picks be confirmed?
The article discusses a prediction market regarding the confirmation of remaining Trump cabinet picks, stating that the market will resolve to "Yes" only if all specified nominees are confirmed by the Senate by January 31, 2026, with a current low probability of success.
Events for January 2026 – SCOTUSblog
The SCOTUSblog calendar for January 2026 lists 35 events, including significant oral arguments and conferences scheduled for January 9, 12, 13, 14, 16, 19 (Martin Luther King Jr. Day), 20, 21, and 23, with notable cases such as Chevron USA Inc. v. Plaquemines Parish and Trump v. Cook.
31/01/2026 17:30 GMT
The BBC News Summary for January 31, 2026, at 17:30 GMT provides a brief two-minute overview of the latest global news developments, available shortly after broadcast.
Upcoming Requirements - Apple Developer
Apple has announced several upcoming requirements for developers, including new age rating updates effective January 31, 2026, mandatory use of Xcode 16 or later for app submissions starting April 24, 2025, and compliance with the Digital Services Act for apps in the EU, among other updates related to APNs certificates and macOS app attributes.
Apple Inc.Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program (REPP) - Center for Domestic Preparedness
The Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program (REPP) coordinates national efforts to equip state, local, and tribal governments with planning, training, and exercise guidance to effectively manage incidents involving commercial nuclear power plants.
KED Global
KED Global reports on significant developments in South Korea's economy, including SK Hynix's progress in supplying HBM4 memory to Nvidia, the US retaining South Korea on its currency watchlist, a boost in tourism due to China-Japan tensions, the dominance of Samsung and SK Hynix in the Kospi market, a lull in IPO activity amid tighter regulations, and a shift towards shorter financing by Korean firms due to rising bond yields.
KED GlobalUnity In Action
The blog "Unity In Action" provides updates and resources about Dongdaewon, including links to new blog posts, videos, patient stories, and reflections from trips to North Korea, emphasizing community engagement and support.
Posted by Miss B 24Today's News
Today's news highlights include the inauguration of the Kyongam Wood Processing Factory, the construction of modern farmhouses in Kangwon Province, advancements in offshore farming, and international developments such as the Canadian Prime Minister's rejection of U.S. tariff threats and a Russian official's comments on NATO's challenges.
Ilham-Aliyev
North Korea has begun equipping its coast guard ships in the Yellow Sea with US-made multi-barrelled machine guns, raising concerns about a significant threat to South Korean naval forces, according to South Korean media reports.
Xəbərlər, Son xəbərlər, Xeberler, Son xeberler, AzvisionComments (1)
@JayR
22d ago
Not happening

