
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
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Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?
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Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to Yes if North Korea detonates a nuclear explosive device (nuclear weapon test) on or before December 31, 2026.
In practice, a “Yes” means that a nuclear test by the DPRK is detected and officially confirmed during the period 2024–2026. Such confirmation would typically come via seismic detection and analysis by international monitors (e.g. CTBTO/IMS), accompanied by acknowledgement from governments or the North Korean state media.
Any nuclear test – whether underground, atmospheric, or underwater – counts, as long as it’s clear that North Korea successfully set off a nuclear yield.
Regular ballistic missile launches without a nuclear warhead do not count, and neither would non-nuclear “subcritical” experiments. The test must involve an actual nuclear chain reaction (fission/fusion explosion). If North Korea does not conduct a confirmed nuclear test by the end of 2026, the market resolves No.
News
China Flags Japan’s Potential to Develop Nuclear Weapons: Report
China has expressed concerns that Japan's substantial stockpile of plutonium and advanced civilian nuclear infrastructure could enable rapid development of nuclear weapons if policy restrictions are lifted, amid rising regional tensions and Japan's recent military enhancements.
Giulia BernacchiOdds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 66% amid military activity
The probability of U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 has increased to 66%, driven by heightened military activity such as aerial refueling over Iran, with market indicators reflecting rising tensions and potential escalation.
Estefano GomezUS intelligence. says half of Iran's weapons arsenal still intact, officials disagree | The Jerusalem Post
US intelligence reports indicate that approximately half of Iran's missile launchers and attack drones remain operational despite heavy US and Israeli strikes, contradicting official claims of significant Iranian military weakening, while US officials dispute the assessment, with ongoing tensions over Iran's missile capabilities and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iran War Has an End Date. Whether the Objectives Were Met Is a Different Question - 19FortyFive
The article reports that the U.S. military operation against Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, is nearing its planned four to six-week conclusion, with President Trump claiming significant degradation of Iran’s military capabilities and asserting that key objectives—such as reducing Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile, navy, and proxy networks—are close to being achieved, though the final outcome and whether all objectives are met remain uncertain.
Harrison KassSouth Korea to fast-track deployment of homegrown Iron Dome-style defense system by 2029
South Korea plans to accelerate the deployment of its domestically developed Iron Dome-style missile defense system to 2029, two years earlier than scheduled, to better counter North Korea’s increasing long-range artillery threats, with the project cost rising to 842 billion won to facilitate early prototype deployment and enhance national security.
Experts Indicate Evolving Safeguards for Early Warning Counterstrike Posture - Jamestown
Experts indicate that China's evolving early warning counterstrike system relies heavily on technological solutions and sensor fusion to mitigate false alarms, but likely lacks dual phenomenology safeguards, increasing the risk of accidental nuclear escalation.
Iran escalates military actions, reducing US-Iran ceasefire odds to 1% by April 7
Iran has intensified military actions, including a significant missile strike, drastically reducing the likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 to just 1%, with market sentiment reflecting low optimism for diplomatic resolution in the near term.
Estefano GomezExpert warns of ‘significant’ US casualties as he lists Iran's weapons - US News - News - Daily Express US
A former US intelligence officer warns that a potential US invasion of Iran could result in significant casualties due to Iran's remaining missile, rocket, and drone capabilities, amid ongoing tensions and US military deployments in the region.
Reanna SmithWhen will the Iran war end? Tracing the Trump administration's timelines - BBC News
The article details President Trump’s fluctuating timelines and statements regarding the duration of the US military campaign against Iran, highlighting his initial promises of a short war, subsequent shifts in estimates, and the broader context of presidential unpredictability in conflict timelines.
Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Iran ‘back to the Stone Ages’ resonates profoundly in Japan – The Irish Times
The article highlights how Donald Trump’s provocative threat to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Ages" resonates deeply in Japan, given its historical experience with US bombing campaigns during World War II, and discusses broader regional tensions and responses amid escalating US-Iran conflicts.
David McNeill in TokyoComments (1)
@JayR
2mo ago
Not happening

