Event Image
December 31, 2026
Vol: $1

Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?

Outcome

%Chance

Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?

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Will North Korea Conduct a Nuclear Weapon Test by the End of 2026?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to Yes if North Korea detonates a nuclear explosive device (nuclear weapon test) on or before December 31, 2026.

In practice, a “Yes” means that a nuclear test by the DPRK is detected and officially confirmed during the period 2024–2026. Such confirmation would typically come via seismic detection and analysis by international monitors (e.g. CTBTO/IMS), accompanied by acknowledgement from governments or the North Korean state media.

Any nuclear test – whether underground, atmospheric, or underwater – counts, as long as it’s clear that North Korea successfully set off a nuclear yield.

Regular ballistic missile launches without a nuclear warhead do not count, and neither would non-nuclear “subcritical” experiments. The test must involve an actual nuclear chain reaction (fission/fusion explosion). If North Korea does not conduct a confirmed nuclear test by the end of 2026, the market resolves No.

News

1 day ago

China Flags Japan’s Potential to Develop Nuclear Weapons: Report

China has expressed concern that Japan's substantial stockpile of nuclear material and advanced civilian nuclear infrastructure could enable rapid development of nuclear weapons if policy restrictions were lifted, amid rising regional tensions and Japan's recent military enhancements.

Giulia Bernacchi
1 day ago

US intelligence. says half of Iran's weapons arsenal still intact, officials disagree | The Jerusalem Post

US intelligence reports indicate that approximately half of Iran's missile launchers and attack drones remain operational despite heavy US and Israeli strikes, contradicting official claims of significant Iranian military weakening, while US officials dispute the assessment, asserting that Iran's military capabilities have been substantially damaged.

1 day ago

How the War with Iran Ends

The article argues that Iran's Islamic Republic is internally collapsing due to internal crises, leadership succession issues, widespread unrest, strategic errors, and regional hostility, with recent events like the hurried appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as successor highlighting its weakening stability.

Daisy Johnston
1 day ago

The Iran War Has an End Date. Whether the Objectives Were Met Is a Different Question - 19FortyFive

The article reports that the U.S. is nearing the end of Operation Epic Fury, a military campaign against Iran aimed at degrading its nuclear, missile, navy, and proxy capabilities, with President Trump estimating the conflict could conclude within two to three weeks, aligning with the Pentagon’s original four to six-week plan, though the ultimate success and objectives remain uncertain.

Harrison Kass
1 day ago

South Korea to fast-track deployment of homegrown Iron Dome-style defense system by 2029

South Korea plans to accelerate the deployment of its homegrown Iron Dome-style missile defense system to 2029, two years earlier than scheduled, to better counter North Korea’s advancing long-range artillery threats, with increased investment and prioritized prototype deployment to enhance national security.

1 day ago

Doomsday Clock chief points to risk of nuclear weapons use in Iran conflict - World - TASS

The chief of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists warns of a low but possible risk of nuclear weapons use by the US, Israel, or Iran amid escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear activities, with the Doomsday Clock now at 85 seconds to midnight, reflecting heightened global danger.

1 day ago

Experts Indicate Evolving Safeguards for Early Warning Counterstrike Posture - Jamestown

Experts indicate that China's evolving early warning counterstrike system relies primarily on technological solutions and sensor fusion to mitigate false alarms, likely lacks dual phenomenology safeguards, and emphasizes rapid response capabilities over political or regulatory safeguards, increasing the risk of accidental nuclear escalation.

1 day ago

Expert warns of ‘significant’ US casualties as he lists Iran's weapons - US News - News - Daily Express US

A former intelligence officer warns that a potential US invasion of Iran could result in significant casualties due to Iran's remaining missile, rocket, and drone capabilities, amid ongoing tensions and unclear military objectives.

Reanna Smith
1 day ago

When will the Iran war end? Tracing the Trump administration's timelines - BBC News

The article details President Trump's fluctuating timelines and statements regarding the duration of the US military campaign against Iran, highlighting the inconsistency in official predictions and the strategic reasons behind such ambiguity.

1 day ago

Yonhap News Summary | Yonhap News Agency

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to cooperate on securing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while South Korea plans to accelerate the deployment of a missile defense system against North Korean threats, and President Lee will meet with rival party leaders to discuss responses to the Middle East crisis; additionally, South Korea's police have referred a major drug trafficker to prosecution, and first ladies of Korea and France visited the National Museum of Korea to promote cultural ties.

Lee Minji

Comments (1)

@JayR

2mo ago

Not happening