Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
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Resolution Criteria
Resolves Yes if, by end of 2030, a quantum computer publicly factors an RSA-2048 key or otherwise breaks RSA-2048 encryption, demonstrated in a peer-reviewed publication or confirmed by experts (e.g. factoring a 2048-bit semiprime number used in RSA).
“Break” means the task is completed within a feasible timescale (e.g. days or weeks) using a quantum device, not merely a theoretical algorithm.
If RSA-2048 remains unbroken through 2030, or claims of a break cannot be verified, the market resolves No.
News
Welcome to The Texas Quantum Institute
The Texas Quantum Institute at the University of Texas at Austin is a collaborative hub for groundbreaking research in quantum mechanics, focusing on applications that benefit society, led by faculty from various disciplines and offering opportunities for postdoctoral and graduate fellows.
Research
The University of Pittsburgh's Quantum Science and Engineering program focuses on addressing complex quantum challenges through interdisciplinary research in quantum computing, communications, and sensing, involving collaboration among faculty and students across various disciplines.
Quantum photonic computing chips and its algorithms
The thesis by Huihui Zhu presents advancements in quantum photonic computing, detailing the development of an integrated diffractive optical network that significantly reduces resource requirements for optical computing, and a Gaussian Boson sampling microprocessor capable of solving NP-complete problems, highlighting the potential of photonic quantum technologies for practical applications.
Zhu, HuihuiCAREER: The Role of Classical Cryptography in Quantum Computing Mahadev, Urmila California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
The article discusses the emerging connections between classical cryptography and quantum computing, highlighting how quantum algorithms have influenced key cryptographic assumptions and the development of classical cryptographic protocols.
Mahadev, UrmilaAdvances in Provable and Practical Security—ProvSec 2025
The article announces a special issue for the journal "Cryptography," featuring extended versions of papers from the 19th International Conference on Provable and Practical Security (ProvSec 2025) and inviting original research on various topics related to provable and practical security, with a submission deadline and specific manuscript guidelines outlined.
Vigilance.fr - IBM GSKit-Crypto: information disclosure via RSA Decryption, analyzed on 03/10/2023 – Global Security Mag Online
The article discusses a security vulnerability in IBM's GSKit-Crypto, which allows for information disclosure through RSA decryption, highlighting the potential risks and implications for users as analyzed on October 3, 2023.
Vigilance.frQoala: an Application Execution Environment for Quantum Internet Nodes
Qoala is an advanced application execution environment that extends the QNodeOS for quantum internet nodes, enabling hybrid classical-quantum program execution with a unified program format, multitasking capabilities, and a modular simulator validated against real quantum hardware, paving the way for future research in quantum network applications.
Bart van der Vecht1,2,3Dual-Use Quantum Technologies
The article discusses a special collection on dual-use quantum technologies, highlighting their rapid advancement and implications for both civilian and military applications, while inviting submissions that explore technology development, defense needs, industry emergence, strategic implications, and policy governance related to these technologies.
Research articles
The webpage provides access to a variety of research articles published in Scientific Reports, covering diverse topics such as cryopreservation techniques, energy characteristics of solar collectors, and the impact of housing structures on dengue transmission, all available for open access.
The Bank of England
The Bank of England is responsible for maintaining monetary and financial stability in the UK, currently setting the Bank Rate at 3.75% and addressing inflation, which stands at 3.4%, while also overseeing financial stability through its various committees and initiatives.