
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
By placing order, you agree to Terms & Conditions
Resolution Criteria
Resolves Yes if, by end of 2030, a quantum computer publicly factors an RSA-2048 key or otherwise breaks RSA-2048 encryption, demonstrated in a peer-reviewed publication or confirmed by experts (e.g. factoring a 2048-bit semiprime number used in RSA).
“Break” means the task is completed within a feasible timescale (e.g. days or weeks) using a quantum device, not merely a theoretical algorithm.
If RSA-2048 remains unbroken through 2030, or claims of a break cannot be verified, the market resolves No.
News
QRL (Quantum Resistant Ledger) Launches Post-Quantum Smart Contract Testnet Ahead of 2.0 Mainnet – CoinSpectator – Real-time Cryptocurrency News
QRL has launched QRL 2.0 Testnet V2, a post-quantum proof-of-stake blockchain supporting smart contracts via Hyperion and QRVM, marking a significant step toward its mainnet release and enhancing quantum resistance in blockchain technology.
CSTeamWorld's largest quantum circuit simulation for quantum chemistry achieved on 1,024 GPUs
A research team successfully simulated the largest quantum chemistry circuits to date—up to 42 qubits—using 1,024 GPUs and advanced parallel computing, surpassing previous limits and advancing quantum algorithm validation for future fault-tolerant quantum computers.
enQase Making Quantum Security Splash at RSA Conference 2026 - The Desert Sun
enQase is showcasing its enhanced quantum-safe security platform and participating in industry discussions at RSA Conference 2026 to lead efforts in transitioning organizations to practical, quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions amid growing quantum computing threats.
Distributed by EIN PresswireGoogle study: 500,000 qubits could crack Bitcoin and Ethereum security
A Google study warns that within the next few years, quantum computers with fewer than 500,000 qubits could break the cryptographic security of Bitcoin and Ethereum, potentially allowing hackers to access wallets in minutes.
Rigetti Sells Novera QPU To University Of Saskatchewan
Rigetti has sold a 9-qubit Novera QPU to the University of Saskatchewan, establishing a scalable, integrated quantum computing system to advance research and position Western Canada as a competitive hub in quantum science.
Quantum NewsUseful quantum computers could be built with as few as 10,000 qubits, team finds
A new approach to quantum error correction using neutral atom qubits suggests that useful, fault-tolerant quantum computers could be built with as few as 10,000 to 20,000 qubits, potentially enabling operational machines by the end of the decade.
The first quantum computer to crack encryption is now shockingly close - Veritas News
Recent advancements suggest that quantum computers with as few as 10,000 to 500,000 qubits could soon break encryption methods like elliptic curve cryptography, raising significant concerns for internet security and cryptocurrencies.
Noah ConwayGoogle says quantum computing will crack bitcoin cryptography sooner than expected, estimating a 10% chance of 'Q-Day' by 2032 | PC Gamer
Google estimates a 10% chance that quantum computing will break Bitcoin's cryptography, specifically RSA and elliptic curve encryption, by 2032, highlighting significant advancements in quantum algorithms like Shor's algorithm.
News By Jeremy Laird published 1 April 2026Google AI whitepaper: 'Algorand is the perfect example of post-quantum computing' - ALGO jumps 24% - AMBCrypto
The article reports that Algorand (ALGO) surged 24% following the release of a Google AI whitepaper highlighting its post-quantum security features, positioning it as a leading example of blockchain readiness for quantum threats, though its recent rally faces resistance around $0.10.
Akashnath SRSAC 2026: The real takeaway isn’t AI – it’s post-quantum readiness | perspective | SC Media
The article emphasizes that while AI advancements dominate discussions at RSAC 2026, the critical and urgent cybersecurity challenge lies in preparing for post-quantum cryptography (PQC), highlighting the need for organizations to inventory cryptographic usage across complex environments and develop strategic mitigation plans to address imminent quantum threats.
Paul Kao
