
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Outcome
% Chance
Outcome
%Chance
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
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Resolution Criteria
Resolves Yes if, by end of 2030, a quantum computer publicly factors an RSA-2048 key or otherwise breaks RSA-2048 encryption, demonstrated in a peer-reviewed publication or confirmed by experts (e.g. factoring a 2048-bit semiprime number used in RSA).
“Break” means the task is completed within a feasible timescale (e.g. days or weeks) using a quantum device, not merely a theoretical algorithm.
If RSA-2048 remains unbroken through 2030, or claims of a break cannot be verified, the market resolves No.
News
Roadmap 2026 (2026-02-04) | Webpack
The Webpack Roadmap 2026 outlines plans to enhance core features such as native CSS Modules support, a universal target for cross-runtime compatibility, streamlined TypeScript integration without loaders, and built-in HTML entry point support, aiming to improve usability, maintainability, and ecosystem longevity.
Bittium SafeMove® Mobile VPN Software Is Now Quantum-Safe – Global Security Mag Online
Bittium has integrated NIST-standardized quantum-safe ML-KEM encryption into its SafeMove® Mobile VPN software, employing a hybrid approach to ensure secure, future-proof connectivity against quantum computing threats.
World's largest quantum circuit simulation for quantum chemistry achieved on 1,024 GPUs
A research team successfully simulated the largest quantum chemistry circuits to date—42 qubits for an H₂O molecule and 41 qubits for an Fe₂S₂ molecule—using 1,024 GPUs, advancing quantum algorithm validation for future fault-tolerant quantum computers.
enQase Making Quantum Security Splash at RSA Conference 2026 - The Desert Sun
enQase is showcasing its enhanced quantum-safe security platform and participating in industry discussions at RSA Conference 2026 to lead efforts in transitioning organizations to practical, quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions amid growing quantum computing threats.
Distributed by EIN PresswireQRL (Quantum Resistant Ledger) Launches Post-Quantum Smart Contract Testnet Ahead of 2.0 Mainnet – CoinSpectator – Real-time Cryptocurrency News
QRL has launched the QRL 2.0 Testnet V2, a post-quantum proof-of-stake blockchain supporting smart contracts via Hyperion and QRVM, marking a significant step toward its mainnet release and enhancing quantum-resistant blockchain technology.
CSTeamThe first quantum computer to crack encryption is now shockingly close - Veritas News
Recent advancements suggest that quantum computers with as few as 10,000 to 500,000 qubits could soon break widely used encryption methods like elliptic curve cryptography, raising significant concerns for internet security and cryptocurrencies.
Noah ConwayIBM Quantum Computer Accurately Simulates Real Magnetic Materials, Reproducing National Laboratory Data - MC Press Online
The article reports that IBM's quantum computer has successfully simulated real magnetic materials with high accuracy, reproducing data from national laboratories, demonstrating significant progress in quantum computing applications for material science.
IBM CorporationKey Leaks, Vault Failures, and TEE Attacks: Highlights from RWC 2026 - Security Boulevard
The article highlights key cybersecurity issues discussed at RWC 2026, including widespread private key leaks, vulnerabilities in cloud-based password managers exposing critical security flaws, and ongoing challenges in cryptography, post-quantum algorithms, and PKI infrastructure.
Gaëtan FerryUseful quantum computers could be built with as few as 10,000 qubits, team finds
A new error-correction architecture leveraging neutral atom qubits suggests that useful, fault-tolerant quantum computers could be built with as few as 10,000 to 20,000 qubits, potentially enabling operational quantum machines by the end of the decade.
TurboQuant is a big deal, but it won’t end the memory crunch • The Register
Google's TurboQuant technology significantly reduces memory requirements for AI inference—achieving up to 6x compression of KV caches—by combining advanced quantization methods (QJL and PolarQuant), but it does not address the broader memory cost issues driven by high DRAM prices.
Tobias Mann
