Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Outcome
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Outcome
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Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?
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Resolution Criteria
Resolves Yes if, by end of 2030, a quantum computer publicly factors an RSA-2048 key or otherwise breaks RSA-2048 encryption, demonstrated in a peer-reviewed publication or confirmed by experts (e.g. factoring a 2048-bit semiprime number used in RSA).
“Break” means the task is completed within a feasible timescale (e.g. days or weeks) using a quantum device, not merely a theoretical algorithm.
If RSA-2048 remains unbroken through 2030, or claims of a break cannot be verified, the market resolves No.
News
Clock is ticking for bitcoin to prevent quantum threat as it could drain 6.9 million BTC including Satoshi’s - BitRss - Crypto World News
Bitcoin faces a looming quantum threat that could potentially drain about 6.9 million BTC, including funds from Satoshi’s address, unless quantum-resistant solutions are implemented.
From 2052 to 2034: Quantum Progress Accelerates the Countdown to Q-Day - BitRss - Crypto World News
Metaculus now forecasts that a quantum computer capable of breaking RSA with Shor’s algorithm could emerge by 2034 (previously 2052), prompting urgent discussions about transitioning cryptocurrency and blockchain systems to post-quantum cryptography, with some experts suggesting a window as early as 2028–2033 and others stressing the need for multi-year, coordinated migration.
Microsoft’s Quantum Leap: The $10 Billion Bet That Could Rewrite Computing – USA Business Times
Microsoft is accelerating its $10B quantum initiative into commercial scale via Azure Quantum Elements, onboarding Fortune 500 clients (notably Novo Nordisk) and betting on topological qubits to enable hybrid classical-quantum workloads, while facing regulatory security concerns and ongoing industry moves as the quantum commercialization timeline tightens.
Elizabeth HayesIonQ Says Orders Set 2030 Deadline For Post-quantum Crypto Migration
The article reports that US executive orders EO 14411 and EO 14412, issued June 22, set 2030–2031 deadlines for federal agencies to adopt post-quantum cryptography and shift quantum policy toward practical deployment, with IonQ measuring progress via an end-to-end Time-to-Solution framework to showcase real-world impact beyond traditional qubit counts.
Ivy DelaneyTrump Executive Order Sets Deadlines for Federal Shift to Quantum-Resistant Encryption - BitRss - Crypto World News
Trump issued an executive order mandating federal agencies migrate high-value and high-impact systems to post-quantum cryptography, with a deadline to complete the shift by 2031 and interim milestones in 2030, including appointing migration leads, updating procurement, and coordinating with critical infrastructure to address quantum risks.
Inside America’s $50 Billion Push to Own Quantum Computing – USA Business Times
The article describes the U.S. and Silicon Valley’s aggressive push—bolstered by a $50 billion federal and private program—to accelerate quantum computing, including major investments, a proposed National Quantum Computing Center, rapid cryptographic modernization, a surge of startups and venture funding, and heightened urgency after claimed Chinese advances, with practical impact on encryption, talent pipelines, and national competitiveness.
Sarah WellingtonU.S. Quantum Push Raises the Stakes for Post-Quantum Security - datensicherheit.de
The article reports that the U.S. and European regulators are accelerating the move to post-quantum cryptography, with PQC migration timelines targeting 2030–2031 for key exchange, signatures, and identity verification, ANSSI's 2027 certification exclusions for non-PQC products, and Urging companies to act now by mapping sensitive data, adopting crypto-agile infrastructures, implementing NIST ML-KEM/ML-DSA standards, and securing hardware roots of trust to withstand quantum threats and preserve digital sovereignty.
datensicherheit.de Informationen zu Datensicherheit und DatenschutzHPCwire - Since 1987 – Covering the Fastest Computers in the World and the People Who Run Them
Gartner-DICTATED forecast: no production AI workload will run on quantum hardware at scale by 2028, quantum AI remains non-viable for enterprise use this decade, and enterprises should instead pursue quantum-inspired classical methods and strict pilot criteria.
August 4, 2026Bitcoin’s Security Model May Shift As Quantum Computing Moves Forward: Analyst - BitRss - Crypto World News
Quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin by (1) potentially breaking public-key signatures and enabling stolen funds, and (2) enabling faster quantum mining that could disrupt incentives and block production; experts say about one-third of Bitcoin’s supply is exposed due to already-revealed public keys, and while current quantum machines are not yet capable, industry efforts are pursuing post-quantum cryptography and migration paths, though any fix would be complex and require broad consensus.
Jim Cramer Plans to Dump His Bitcoin, Warns Quantum Will Crack It Soon
Jim Cramer says he plans to sell all his bitcoin within about three years due to fears that quantum computing could break Bitcoin’s cryptography, as Google and IBM progress heighten the risk timeline, while Bitcoin’s price moves slightly and the debate over quantum-resistant defenses intensifies.
Jamie Redman