Event Image
December 31, 2030
Vol: $3

Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

Outcome

%Chance

Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

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Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

Resolves Yes if, by end of 2030, a quantum computer publicly factors an RSA-2048 key or otherwise breaks RSA-2048 encryption, demonstrated in a peer-reviewed publication or confirmed by experts (e.g. factoring a 2048-bit semiprime number used in RSA).

“Break” means the task is completed within a feasible timescale (e.g. days or weeks) using a quantum device, not merely a theoretical algorithm.

If RSA-2048 remains unbroken through 2030, or claims of a break cannot be verified, the market resolves No.

News

1 day ago

Algorand Soars Double-Digits On Google ‘Post-Quantum Protocols’ Citation - Decrypt

Algorand's cryptocurrency price surged double digits following a citation by Google regarding post-quantum protocols, highlighting increased interest and potential advancements in quantum-resistant blockchain technology.

Decrypt / Akash Girimath
1 day ago

Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) Prospectus Flags Quantum Computing as Emerging Risk — Here’s What It Means – CoinSpectator – Real-time Cryptocurrency News

Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF prospectus warns that advancements in quantum computing could compromise Bitcoin's cryptography, posing a potential risk to wallet security and ETF investors.

CSTeam
1 day ago

How worried should you be about an AI apocalypse? | New Scientist

The article discusses the current state of AI development, emphasizing that while concerns about an AI apocalypse are largely speculative, experts agree that careful oversight and ethical considerations are essential to prevent potential risks associated with advanced AI systems.

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1 day ago

Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin Hoard Faces Quantum Computing Threat, Analysis Reveals - MoneyCheck

An analysis reveals that Satoshi Nakamoto's approximately 1.1 million Bitcoin holdings could become vulnerable to future quantum computing attacks, as recent research shows significant advancements in quantum technology that threaten cryptographic security.

Oliver Dale
1 day ago

Clocking Quantum Instability: A New Process Could Open Pathways to Reliable Quantum Computing - The Debrief

Researchers at the Niels Bohr Institute have developed a rapid and accurate measurement method to determine the lifespan of quantum data in qubits, addressing the unpredictable instability of quantum computing and potentially paving the way for more reliable quantum computers.

Ryan Whalen
1 day ago

We'll Make Decades Of Theoretical Physics Progress In The Next Couple Of Years: Sam Altman

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman predicts that AI-driven scientific research, exemplified by recent breakthroughs in theoretical physics, will enable decades of progress within just a few years, supported by substantial funding and ongoing initiatives like GPT-5.2 and future AI research tools.

OfficeChai Team
1 day ago

Akira hackers shrink encryption timeline to under one hour

The Akira ransomware group has significantly accelerated its attack timeline by using intermittent encryption and exploiting vulnerabilities like CVE-2024-40766 to gain rapid access and encrypt large files within an hour, posing a substantial threat to organizations through sophisticated, persistent methods.

Tom Quinn
1 day ago

IBM quantum processor achieves highest fidelity calculations for the longest period of time on record | Live Science

IBM's quantum processor has set a new record by achieving the highest fidelity calculations over the longest duration ever recorded, marking a significant advancement in quantum computing stability and performance.

News By Tristan Greene published 3 April 2026
1 day ago

Algorand Soars Double-Digits On Google ‘Post-Quantum Protocols’ Citation - Decrypt

Algorand's recent surge in value, driven by a Google research paper highlighting its deployment of post-quantum cryptography and real-world asset support, underscores its emerging leadership in quantum-resistant blockchain technology.

Decrypt / Akash Girimath
1 day ago

Sécuriser les flux à l’ère du quantique

Thales a lancé une version post-quantique de ses appliances Mistral, utilisant un algorithme certifié par le NIST pour résister aux attaques des ordinateurs quantiques, notamment en remplaçant la cryptographie RSA par le mécanisme ML-KEM, garantissant la sécurité des flux de données sans impacter les performances.

Patrick Brébion

Comments (1)

@multifun

Reasoning
Bought
13 Yesshares @ 0.23¢

2mo ago

AI will make it work