Event Image
December 31, 2030
Vol: $3

Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

Chance21.0%
Yes21.00%

Outcome

%Chance

Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

21%

Will Quantum Computing Break RSA-2048 Encryption by 2030?

Balance: $0.0

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Resolution Criteria

Resolves Yes if, by end of 2030, a quantum computer publicly factors an RSA-2048 key or otherwise breaks RSA-2048 encryption, demonstrated in a peer-reviewed publication or confirmed by experts (e.g. factoring a 2048-bit semiprime number used in RSA).

“Break” means the task is completed within a feasible timescale (e.g. days or weeks) using a quantum device, not merely a theoretical algorithm.

If RSA-2048 remains unbroken through 2030, or claims of a break cannot be verified, the market resolves No.

News

about 17 hours ago

Welcome to The Texas Quantum Institute

The Texas Quantum Institute at the University of Texas at Austin is a leading research hub focused on advancing quantum information science and technology, featuring interdisciplinary collaboration among faculty and offering opportunities for postdoctoral and graduate fellows.

about 17 hours ago

Research

The University of Pittsburgh's Quantum Science and Engineering research focuses on solving complex quantum problems through interdisciplinary collaboration, exploring areas such as quantum computing, communication, and sensing, with faculty and students actively developing innovative technologies and protocols.

about 17 hours ago

Quantum photonic computing chips and its algorithms

The thesis presents advancements in quantum photonic computing, highlighting the development of a silicon-on-insulator optical computing chip that achieves significant reductions in footprint and energy consumption, and a Gaussian Boson sampling microprocessor capable of solving various NP-complete problems, showcasing the potential of integrated photonics for practical quantum applications.

Zhu, Huihui
about 17 hours ago

Vigilance.fr - IBM GSKit-Crypto: information disclosure via RSA Decryption, analyzed on 03/10/2023 – Global Security Mag Online

The article discusses a security vulnerability in IBM's GSKit-Crypto that allows for information disclosure through RSA decryption, highlighting the potential risks and implications of this flaw as analyzed on October 3, 2023.

Vigilance.fr
about 17 hours ago

64-bit Computing Market Analysis & Forecast: 2025-2032

The 64-bit computing market is projected to grow significantly from 2025 to 2032, driven by increased demand in automotive applications and consumer electronics, with North America maintaining the largest market share while Asia Pacific is expected to exhibit the fastest growth due to rising electronic vehicle adoption.

Coherent Market Insights Pvt Ltd
about 17 hours ago

Qoala: an Application Execution Environment for Quantum Internet Nodes

Qoala is an advanced application execution environment that extends the QNodeOS for quantum internet nodes, offering a unified program format for hybrid classical-quantum applications, enabling multitasking and asynchronous execution, and providing a framework for future research in quantum network applications.

Bart van der Vecht1,2,3
about 17 hours ago

Dual-Use Quantum Technologies

The article discusses the rapid advancement of dual-use quantum technologies, highlighting their potential applications in both civilian and military sectors, while addressing the ethical, strategic, and policy challenges they pose, and inviting submissions on various related topics for a special collection.

about 17 hours ago

Automation and computer-assisted planning for chemical synthesis

The article discusses advancements in chemical synthesis through automation and computer-assisted planning, highlighting the integration of data science tools, such as algorithms for retrosynthesis and robotics for high-throughput synthesis, which empower chemists to design and produce increasingly sophisticated molecules.

Yuning Shen 1 ,
about 17 hours ago

CAREER: The Role of Classical Cryptography in Quantum Computing Mahadev, Urmila    California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States

The article discusses the emerging connections between classical cryptography and quantum computing, highlighting how quantum algorithms have influenced key cryptographic assumptions and the development of classical cryptographic protocols.

Mahadev, Urmila
about 17 hours ago

Advances in Provable and Practical Security—ProvSec 2025

The article announces a special issue for the journal "Cryptography," featuring extended papers from the 19th International Conference on Provable and Practical Security (ProvSec 2025) in Yokohama, Japan, and invites original submissions on a wide range of topics related to provable and practical security, including cryptography, IoT security, and AI security.

Comments (1)

@multifun

Reasoning
Bought
13 Yesshares @ 0.23¢

18d ago

AI will make it work