Will the Russia-Ukraine War End by the End of 2026?
Outcome
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Outcome
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Will the Russia-Ukraine War End by the End of 2026?
Will the Russia-Ukraine War End by the End of 2026?
Will the Russia-Ukraine War End by the End of 2026?
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Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2026, the active armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine comes to a formal end through a mutually agreed ceasefire or peace agreement.
Specifically, a bilateral ceasefire or peace treaty must be publicly announced and acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine as halting the major hostilities. A mere temporary truce or localized pause will not count – the agreement should encompass a general halt to the conflict. The deal need not resolve all political issues, but it must include an explicit commitment to stop the fighting on a national level by a specified date.
Partial or informal agreements (for example, a ceasefire only in a certain region, or a unilateral “pause” not reciprocated by the other side) do not qualify. Humanitarian pauses or agreements limited to issues like grain exports are insufficient. The ceasefire/peace must be intended as an open-ended or permanent cessation of hostilities (even if conditional or with ongoing negotiations). If such a deal is reached by the end of 2026 – even if implementation or peacekeeping extends beyond 2026 – the market resolves Yes.
If no broad ceasefire or peace accord is in effect by 2026’s end, the market resolves No.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements by the governments in Moscow and Kyiv or verification by credible international bodies (e.g. the U.N.). A wide consensus of media reports confirming a signed Russo-Ukrainian ceasefire or peace agreement by 2026 is sufficient to resolve “Yes.”
News
Putin Faces Tough Decision Amid Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal
A proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, agreed upon by Washington and Kyiv, presents a challenging decision for President Putin, as experts speculate on Russia's response amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations and military dynamics.
The Eye NewspapersGermany Accuses Putin of Tactics to Delay Peace Talks Following US Ceasefire Proposal
Germany has accused President Putin of using delay tactics in response to the US's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, expressing concerns that Russia's cautious stance indicates a lack of genuine interest in achieving lasting peace.
The Eye NewspapersChina's Strategic Balancing Act in the Ukraine Conflict
China is navigating a complex relationship with Russia amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict, positioning itself as a potential mediator while simultaneously supporting Russia economically and politically, as it seeks to enhance its global influence and project an image of a peace-promoting nation.
TME NewsRussia Denies Reports of Upcoming US-Russia Negotiations
Russia has officially denied reports of planned negotiations with the United States regarding the Ukraine conflict, contradicting claims of upcoming talks in Saudi Arabia, while the situation on the ground remains tense with Russian forces tightening their control over Ukrainian troops.
The Eye NewspapersUkraine's Eleven-Year Struggle Against Russian Invasion
The article outlines Ukraine's eleven-year struggle against Russian aggression, beginning with the 2014 annexation of Crimea, highlighting the country's resilience in defending its sovereignty, the ongoing military and political challenges it faces, and the complex international dynamics surrounding potential peace negotiations.
TME NewsEuropean Defense Ministers Present Roadmap for Ukraine Security
The defense ministers of Germany, France, the UK, Poland, and Italy have outlined a roadmap for security guarantees for Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of U.S. support, the strengthening of the Ukrainian military, and the formation of a coalition of nations to enhance European defense capabilities amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
TME NewsThree Years into the Ukraine War: Challenges in the Face of Political Maneuvering
As the Ukraine war enters its third year, challenges such as dwindling morale, inadequate Western support, and political maneuvering by figures like Donald Trump threaten Ukraine's sovereignty, while soldiers remain resolute in their fight against Russian aggression despite personnel shortages and resource disparities.
The Eye NewspapersRussia Rejects Ceasefire Proposal Amid Diplomatic Tensions with the U.S.
Russia has rejected Ukraine's 30-day ceasefire proposal, citing its commitment to military objectives in Ukraine and the need to maintain a strategic dialogue with the U.S., while framing Ukraine's leadership as obstacles to peace.
The Eye Newspapers; TME NewsProfs & Pints Baltimore: Ukraine's Peace Prospects
The Profs & Pints Baltimore event features Dr. Michael Kimmage discussing Ukraine's peace prospects, examining the historical roots of the conflict, the failed Minsk agreements, and the implications of recent diplomatic efforts by the Trump administration to end the war and deter future Russian aggression.
Politics and International Law
The book "Politics and International Law" by Leslie Johns examines the dynamics of creating, enforcing, and challenging global legal frameworks, highlighting the interplay between political power and international legal norms.
Leslie Johns , University of California, Los Angeles