Will the WHO Declare a New Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in 2026?
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Will the WHO Declare a New Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in 2026?
Will the WHO Declare a New Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in 2026?
Will the WHO Declare a New Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in 2026?
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Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to Yes if the World Health Organization declares a new “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” (PHEIC) on or before December 31, 2026.
A PHEIC is a formal declaration by the WHO Director-General, under the International Health Regulations, that an extraordinary public health event is occurring which risks international spread and requires a coordinated global response. For this market, we specifically require a new PHEIC declaration in the timeframe – meaning an emergency that is declared between 2024 and 2026. (Ongoing PHEICs that were declared prior to 2024, such as the existing one on polio, do not count as “new.”)
Examples that would count include the WHO DG publicly declaring an outbreak (e.g. a novel influenza strain, a viral hemorrhagic fever outbreak, etc.) as a PHEIC during 2024, 2025, or 2026. The declaration is typically made after an Emergency Committee meeting and announced via WHO press release. If at least one such declaration is made by the end of 2026, the market resolves Yes. If no new PHEIC is declared in that period, it resolves No.
It doesn’t matter which disease or how many PHEICs – one is enough for “Yes.” If a PHEIC declared in 2026 is later rescinded, it still counts (the focus is on it being declared). We exclude mere extensions of pre-existing PHEICs; it must be a new emergency not already under a PHEIC status before 2024.
News
Congo Ebola outbreak becomes second largest ever recorded - World Socialist Web Site
The Congo Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the DRC has become the second largest Ebola epidemic on record, with 3,605 confirmed cases and 1,587 deaths (44% CFR) as of July 30, 2026, spanning 49 health zones across Ituri and three other provinces, and marked by its rapid growth and high fatality as it surpasses the 2018–2020 Kivu outbreak and follows earlier outbreaks; WHO notes Ituri accounts for over 90% of cases, while Uganda’s outbreak has been contained, and regional and funding challenges, including reduced US assistance, have impacted the response.
Ebola Outbreak in Congo Is Intensifying at an "Exceptional" Pace, Now the Largest on Record, WHO Warns
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo is the largest on record, intensifying at an exceptional pace with 3,605 confirmed cases and 1,587 deaths (44% case fatality) across five provinces amid ongoing conflict, hindering containment and prompting WHO to call for a substantial scale-up of international response and vaccine/treatment development targeting the Bundibugyo strain.
Jerry Thompson Published 08/03/26 AT 3:18 PM AESTWHO statement on notification of withdrawal of the United States - India Breaking News | Top Stories | Political | Business | Entertainment | Sport
The WHO regrets the United States’ withdrawal notification, noting U.S. contributions to global health, defending WHO’s COVID-19 response and calls for continued U.S. participation, as WHO advances pandemic preparedness through new agreements and path-sharing mechanisms.
Times of NewsUS Health Secretary RFK Jr. Retreats on Vaccines Amid Historic Measles Crisis | Streamline
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. publicly urged vaccination amid the United States’ worst measles outbreak in 35 years, marking a rare pivot from his anti-vaccine stance; the crisis has driven skyrocketing U.S. cases, intensified vaccine hesitancy linked to political rhetoric that risks global public health efforts, and prompted emergency vaccination efforts as international observers weigh the U.S.’s measles-free status.
Streamline Feed OfficialGlobal Leaders Urged to Finalize Pandemic Treaty: Lula and WHO Director's Urgent Appeal (2026)
Global leaders, led by Lula and the WHO’s Tedros, are urged to finalize a global pandemic treaty that links pathogen data sharing with equitable access to vaccines and treatments, arguing that the economic and human costs of inaction far exceed the investment needed, and stressing that sustained political will is essential to build trust and preparedness for future health crises.
Breaking News: WHO Issues Global Health Alert for Ebola Outbreak in DR Congo (2026)
The article notes a WHO-declared health concern over an Ebola outbreak in DR Congo’s Ituri province (Bundibugyo strain) with 246 suspected cases and 80 deaths, the virus now spreading to Uganda, no approved treatments or vaccines, urban centers like Bunia posing heightened risk, and argues that systemic issues—deforestation, wildlife trade, weak healthcare, and uneven global investment—drive repeated outbreaks and require root-cause, equity-focused responses beyond travel bans or charity.
WHO Issues Global Alert: Ebola Outbreak in Congo and Uganda (2026)
The WHO has declared a global health emergency over an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, highlighting a dangerous, potentially larger outbreak of the Bundibugyo variant with no vaccine or specific treatment, challenges from insecurity in Ituri, and WHO recommendations for isolation, contact tracing, and limited travel without border closures.
Ebola Outbreak in DRC: WHO Declares International Emergency - What You Need to Know (2026)
The article reports that the Ebola outbreak in the DRC, driven by the Bundibugyo strain, has prompted a PHEIC despite cases spreading into urban areas and across borders (including Uganda and a US citizen hospitalized in Germany), amid conflict-driven displacement and limited strain-specific vaccines or treatments, signaling a rapid, high-stakes global health emergency requiring urgent, international coordinated action.
COVID-19 Global Risk Assessment- Version 9-Urban Press
Global COVID-19 risk remained moderate at the end of 2025 due to high population immunity and improved clinical management, with most variants being Omicron sublineages that can escape immunity but do not worsen severity, ongoing circulation alongside influenza and RSV, limited genomic surveillance in lower-income countries, about 6% of symptomatic cases developing post-COVID conditions (less risk for the vaccinated), and a need for continued vigilance despite vaccines remaining effective against severe disease amid low uptake and evolving surveillance data.
WHO Rapid Risk Assessment – Nipah virus – Global – Version 1-Zenith Network
WHO released a global Rapid Risk Assessment (RRA) for Nipah virus (Version 1, March 6, 2026) evaluating the overall public health impact, likelihood of geographic spread, and potential gaps in control capacities given available resources, to aid national authorities and international bodies in preparedness and response under IHR provisions.